Ontario’s latest COVID-19 projections show vaccinations in long-term care are paying off.

However, Chief Medical Officer of Health Dr. David Williams says progress otherwise has stalled. 

Modelling data shows declines in community cases and test positivity levelling off as cases increase in most Public Health Units as more people start moving across Ontario. 

Projections indicate Ontario could see up to 6,000 cases reported daily by April assuming medium spread occurs. In the best-case scenario, that figure drops to less than 2,000 a day.

Dr. Williams says controlling the continued spread of variants is directly related to avoiding a possible third wave this summer. 

As of this week, 25 long-term care homes have outbreaks involving residents, almost half of which are in York, Toronto and Peel.

The province’s latest data also marks a grim milestone as the total number of LTC resident deaths in the second wave reaches 1,900, exceeding the 1,848 resident deaths in Wave 1. 

Williams says people postponing doctor’s appointments and missing critical screening for things like cancer is on the rise, which means there will be a surge in need for other medical care and surgeries for a long period of time.  

He says a cumulative total of over 227,000 surgical cases were backlogged province-wide by the end of last month.