Not out of the woods yet, but Ontario may have escaped a worst case second wave
The provincial health team unveiled modelling numbers that show the growth of new COVID-19 cases is slowing. Even though hospitalizations have increased by 56-percent over the last three weeks it is still considered slow growth. Most of the patients admitted to hospitals do not require a bed in an intensive care unit. The data shows it is not expected that patients in ICU’s will exceed 150 unless things spiral out of control. The province had said earlier that if the number of ICU patients crept above 150 it would be harder to treat people for non-COVID-related illnesses.
The data also shows that COVID-19 is putting pressure on hospitals as diagnostic imagery and surgeries are below 2019 levels.
The health team did not assign a specific number of cases they expect to see every day but did say in a worst-case scenario that number could be between 1,00 to 1,200 new cases a day. In a best-case scenario, that number would drop to 800. Earlier data showed the province was bracing for 1,000 cases a day by mid-October a number only reported once this month.
Positivity rates are increasing in people in their 40’s at 2.8-percent, that’s up almost a full percentage point from a month ago. The number of elderly people over 75 years of age that are testing positive is also on the rise at 2.3-percent, up from 1.2-percent in September.
The data also shows that cases are rising in long-term care homes and as a result, more elderly residents are dying with 85 deaths since the end of August.