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Environment Canada Expects a Milder Than Normal Winter

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If you bought a big parka and heavy-duty shovel to get ready for winter this year, hopefully you kept the receipt.

That’s because David Phillips, Senior Climatologist with Environment Canada, says this winter will be milder than usual. Environment Canada’s model predicts mild temperatures and higher precipitation.

Phillips says there are two main reasons why this winter will be milder. He says this will be an El Niño winter. El Niño brings, for some parts of the world, droughts and floods, but Phillips says it brings milder than usual winters for Canadians. It brings in more Pacific and Southern air and less Arctic air. The last El Niño winter was in 2016, Phillips says. He says for Southern Ontario that winter ended up being their warmest in 71 years. An El Niño winter happened in 2010 as well the temperature ending up being 2 – 2 and a half degrees warmer than usual across Canada, which made it the 14th warmest winter in 71 years. “The dice are loaded to give you a milder then normal winter when you get El Niño,” Phillips says.

The other thing that will cause a mild winter this year is what’s called the Pacific Blob. “It’s a very warm pool of water that sits off the coast of British Columbia and up into the Gulf of Alaska and Bering Strait,” Phillips says. He says it has emerged this year.

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Phillips says not to expect long periods of white snow. “It snows, but the warm temperatures melt it – it doesn’t have the staying power,” he says. “You’ll see more of the ground at times during El Niño winters,” he added.

Overall, Phillips says there will be cold parts this winter and times where lots of snow packs the ground, but he says it won’t last. “If you don’t like winter, I think it will be more of your kind of season,” he says.

Written by: Mathew Reisler

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